Energy, conflict, rates, cyberattacks: geopolitical risk is no longer a theoretical stress-test scenario for banks. Two recent publications make the point, and both bear directly on the resilience of Moroccan banks.
What does the IMF say about bank strength?
In its Global Financial Stability Report of 13 October 2026, the IMF finds that the global banking sector withstands an adverse scenario combining shocks in AI, bond markets and energy. Yet banks holding 22% of global banking assets would fall below regulatory capital limits, up from 18% a year earlier. Links with non-bank financial intermediaries are deepening, which multiplies the channels through which a shock can travel. Sovereign yields have risen, partly because of energy-driven inflation. For emerging markets, the IMF notes that recent shocks have eroded buffers.
How does Morocco’s central bank read the context?
On 22 September 2026, the Bank Al-Maghrib Council held its policy rate at 2.25%, according to Le Matin. It cited renewed hostilities in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which disrupt energy, food and input supply chains, and described uncertainty as very high. Average inflation stayed low over the first eight months of the year. For banks, that means limited visibility on margins, cost of risk and credit demand.
Cybersecurity, a new geopolitical front
The IMF observes that in more than 70% of cases reported this year, software providers had almost no time to patch a flaw before it was exploited. According to Reuters, a suspected state-linked attack recently targeted South Korean banks using AI tools, and the ECB has set lenders an end-October deadline to present plans against AI-enabled cyber threats. A major incident at a bank, a payment system or a cloud provider can spread across the whole system.
What this means for banks
- Revisit stress scenarios to combine energy, rates, trade tensions and a cyber incident at the same time.
- Map critical dependencies: cloud providers, service suppliers, payment chains, partners in several countries.
- Test realistic continuity and recovery plans, including the restoration of essential customer services.
- Use AI and analytics to track exposures, liquidity and alerts in real time, under clear governance.
The WePartner view
In our digital banking transformation work, including with four Moroccan banks on their digital programme, we see that resilience is decided in the architecture of channels, data and processes, well before any crisis. A bank with automated journeys, reliable data and agile governance adapts its offer and its risk monitoring faster. Resilience thus becomes a dimension of the digital roadmap, alongside customer experience.
A concrete next step
Run a half-day leadership workshop: three geopolitical scenarios, the critical services affected, external dependencies, and the decisions to take within 90 days. Explore the WeDigit offer to link resilience, digital channels and programme steering.